Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Rob Kotecki Places 2nd in Goldwyn Competition


UCLA student Joseph Tremba has won first place for his script "The Shoeshine Girl" in the 54th annual Samuel Goldwyn Writing Awards.

The awards, recognizing excellence in dramatic writing, were announced Monday by Samuel Goldwyn Jr., president of the Samuel Goldwyn Foundation, during a ceremony at the UCLA campus.

Two UCLA students tied for second with Eli Mael recognized for "Oaktown" and Rob Kotecki for "Blowback." First honorable mention went to UC San Diego student Jennifer Barclay for "Prank" and the second hononable mention went to UCLA student Bradford Schmidt for "Landsailor."

Judging the awards were Colin Callender, producer; Hilary Swank, actress/producer; and Catherine Tarr, story editor at CAA. The awards carry prizes of $15,000 for first place, $7,500 for the two second place winners, $2,000 for the first honorable mention and $1,000 for the second honorable mention.

Previous winners include Allison Anders, Francis Ford Coppola, Pamela Gray, Colin Higgins, Jonathan Kellerman and Eric Roth.

Disney Remakes the Movie Studio

I hope this brief article reflects to writers how important product selection and marketing are to the major studios.

How CEO Iger is applying the company's brand marketing savvy to filmmaking
By Ronald Grover at BusinessWeek
October 29, 2009
In early October, Walt Disney (DIS) Chief Executive Robert A. Iger installed a new chairman at the company's movie
studio. Such shakeups are routine in Hollywood, especially now that the entertainment business is struggling. But in
hiring as his studio chief Rich Ross, who helped make companywide franchises out of such Disney Channel hits as
Hannah Montana and High School Musical, Iger seems to be reinventing the modern Hollywood studio. "The primary
responsibility" of any movie executive, Iger said at a public event recently, is to "choose good movies." But he also
expects his studio executive "to be a brand manager."
Iger's philosophy is one that a Procter & Gamble (PG), say, would instantly recognize: build a stable of brands, each
with its own strong identity and core group of customers. Since becoming CEO four years ago, Iger has brought inside
the Disney tent a handful of marquee names—among them director Steven Spielberg and his DreamWorks SKG
(DWA) team, animation giant Pixar, and Marvel Entertainment (MVL). That bolsters a studio that already has
Hollywood's biggest brand, Disney, and superstar producer Jerry Bruckheimer, who created such blockbusters as the
Pirates of the Caribbean series.
Managing these big names and keeping them from undermining one another will be a challenge. But Rick Sands, a
former MGM chief operating officer, calls Iger's strategy "pure genius" at a time when "you need well-known
filmmakers who can create event films" that stand out amid the clutter of entertainment choices.
GIVING UP CONTROL
Studios in the past have tried to line up hitmakers, often signing them to "first look" agreements that give the studio
dibs on new projects. But most films were funneled through a studio's creative executives, who often found the project
and supervised the script. Ross will green-light projects and set in motion many of the 16 films Disney makes each
year. But when a studio brings in famous moviemakers such as Spielberg, it's banking on their ability to continue to
work their magic. That means giving up some control.
Ross essentially operated that way at the Disney Channel. He allowed the creative folks to take the lead for Hannah
Montana and High School Musical. Then he got deeply involved in marketing strategy. Before the first Hannah
Montana episode aired, Ross took its young star, Miley Cyrus, on an internal road show, visiting other Disney units and
enlisting them to sell merchandise that helped make the show a hit.
He is expected to be similarly hands-on at the movie studio. Bruckheimer recently showed Ross a 30-minute segment
of next year's live-action version of The Sorcerer's Apprentice, and says Ross suggested "a dozen ways to market it
before he left the room."
BIG OPENING WEEKENDS
Each brand will require a different management approach. Disney and Pixar executives already sit on a committee that decides which animated projects Pixar should pursue. The committee gives wide latitude to the wishes of Pixar's
creative guru, John Lasseter. Spielberg and his DreamWorks partner, Stacey Snider, arrange financing and make their
own creative decisions. Disney will provide marketing support. How Marvel will fit into the strategy has yet to be
determined, although Iger has said publicly that it will enjoy a lot of autonomy.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

I'm Speaking at This Event Tonight



The Los Angeles chapter of the Institute for Int'l Film Financing (IIFF) continues its acclaimed gatherings at the junction of film & finance with a highly topical FILM FINANCING TOWNHALL in Santa Monica. Don't miss this powerful learning & networking opportunity. Join us on Thursday (10/29) evening at Bergamot Station!

For all details & your SPECIAL DISCOUNT, please visit -

http://gla.filmfinancing.org/102909l

This uniquely valuable meeting features a WORLD-CLASS LINEUP of authoritative speakers, including:

1) RANDY MENDELSOHN, ESQ., President/CEO at financing boutique Atomic Finance & Capital; Founder/Principal at law firm with emphasis on movie & TV finance, production, distribution & talent agreements; clients incl. financiers, distributors, sales agents, management co's & filmmakers; arranges financing for movie & TV production, acquisition, distribution & marketing; represented banks/funds/investors providing funding for 100+ movies; etc.

2) JOHN CONES, ESQ., leading securities/entertainment attorney & author of "43 Ways to Finance Your Feature Film"; advises film, video, TV & theater producers about investor financing of entertainment projects & business start-ups; helped prepare business plans or required securities documents for 250+ such offerings for feature film development deals, production & completion funds, along with documentaries, music projects & TV pilots; etc.

3) BRUCE BARTLETT, veteran literary agent with 15+ years of experience, MBA from UCLA & extensive relationships with studios, producers & financiers; VP at Beverly Hills-based literary boutique Above The Line Agency; reps film & TV writers, directors & producers; sells feature film scripts & clients' services to all industry levels; fmr. Sales Director at Independent Advantage Financial, serving as investment advisor & leading sales team of 20; etc.

4) ELSA RAMO, ESQ., successful indie producer & entertainment attorney representing corporate clients as well as filmmakers, agents & managers; Founder/Attorney at own Beverly Hills-based law firm focusing on legal services to financiers, producers & other creatives (e.g., "Loaded", "Alone in the Dark II", "Gene Generation"); Producer of "In NorthWood", "A Woman Called Job", "Heckler", "Hack!", "The Last Sentinel", "Cult", "Ghost Game"; etc.

5) JEREMY JUUSO, Harvard-educated film finance consultant; specializes in creating film business plans & advising both filmmakers & movie investors; author of new book "Getting the Money: A Step-by-Step Guide for Writing Business Plans for Film" & "The A.K.A. Report" (quarterly analysis of theatrical market for indies); financial advisor to Fly High Films; previously performed investor-database construction & treasury analysis for MGM; etc.

+ 2 MORE TOPICAL EXPERTS!

A comprehensive list of all speakers (plus bios), their topics, as well as VERY AFFORDABLE TICKETS are available at -

http://gla.filmfinancing.org/102909l

Our friends at the Writers Boot Camp are hosting us in their state-of-the-art facilities:

IIFF/LA Film Financing Townhall Meeting
Thursday, October 29, 2009
7:00 PM - 10:00 PM

Writers Boot Camp (WBC)
Bergamot Station Arts Center
2525 Michigan Ave, Bldg I
Santa Monica, CA 90404

LIMITED CAPACITY. Act now to SECURE YOUR SEATS at -

http://gla.filmfinancing.org/102909l

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Angel Group Likes Lights, Camera And Action Of Indie Films


From the Wall St. Journal, 10/12/2009

As an experienced tech entrepreneur and angel investor, Rizwan Virk was happy to see a solid return on one of his recent investments after just one year.


But the exit didn’t come from a software start-up or social media company finding a corporate acquirer. Instead, Virk’s quick payoff came from an independent film.

Virk is a member of FilmAngels, a Silicon Valley group whose members back film productions – mostly small, independent projects. Founded in 2005, Film Angels is made up mostly of tech executives and investors who apply their business and venture capital experience to the filmmaking world.

FilmAngels meets regularly, seeing about five pitches per month. Members are free to invest in whichever projects they choose. The group pre-screens the films, but does not endorse any particular films. About 12 films have been funded through the group, which invites hundreds of accredited investors to its events and has a smaller number of paid members, said Thomas Trenker, managing director at FilmAngels.

For many members of Film Angels, the about-face from their usual areas of investing is what makes the space appealing.

“A lot of investors I see FilmAngels resonate for are already successful investors and very heavily weighted in other asset classes such as technology or software,” said Saad Khan, a FilmAngels member and partner at CMEA Capital. “This is a way to diversify their whole asset class in new areas.”

Investing in technology is Virk’s specialty, having invested in Offerpal Media Inc., a large player in online gaming monetization, and Tapjoy, a mobile game developer. He also was previously chief executive of CambridgeDocs, which was acquired by EMC Document Sciences in 2007.

One film he invested in, “Turquoise Rose” - a coming-of-age story about a Navajo girl from suburban Phoenix who is forced to spend a summer on a Native American reservation - made its money back in under a year, despite the film not having big Hollywood distribution. The filmmakers and Virk self-distributed the film, focusing on the West and Southwest regions, where there are larger Native American populations and strong interest in the film’s topics.

Virk said he made 20% in profit after one year investing in the film, though he declined to say how much he invested. Many of the angels in the group invest in the “low six figures” per film, Trenker said. While such returns are not comparable to VC blockbuster deals, they have the virtue of a much quicker turnaround than the standard VC investment.

The VC model does play a role in the film financing. There are a range of ways that films are financed and structured, particularly for independent films. But many of these films don’t usually include VC-style concepts like classes of stock, valuation or liquidation preferences, Khan said, which give investors different rights based on when and how they invest.

FilmAngels investors seek to include more standardized concepts so that, for example, investors receive protections or preferences for investing at an earlier stage.

“Deals I’ve been in, you get 115% or 120% back, then profits are spread based on some ratio between producers and investors,” Virk said. “It’s similar to a 1.2x liquidation preference.”

At a recent FilmAngels event in San Francisco, director Dan Frisch screened his film, “The Rainbow Tribe,” which has yet to be released. Frisch’s case - he is seeking funding for a follow-up to “The Rainbow Tribe” - is somewhat rare for FilmAngels because, unlike most of those who pitch the group, he is not a neophyte filmmaker, having directed films such as “The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen” and films in the “Hostel” franchise.

But even though Frisch is an established filmmaker, he said he came to FilmAngels because there are surprisingly few groups in the industry where savvy investors are interested in being intimately involved in film projects. “I don’t want an arms’ length investor,” Frisch said.

Virk said a healthy rapport between filmmaker and investor is essential for the model to work. “I look for people who are entrepreneurial,” he said of the investments he considers. “They understand that this is a business and they need to make money back for investors.”

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Sony’s Version of Tracy and Hepburn


October 25, 2009
By TIM ARANGO NY Times

LOS ANGELES

DAYS after Michael Jackson died last summer, an executive at Sony Music phoned Amy Pascal, the co-head of the company’s movie studio, to tell her that the pop singer had left hours upon hours of rehearsal tapes for his planned run of 50 concerts in London.

Ms. Pascal watched 12 minutes of the tapes and saw a surprisingly limber Mr. Jackson strutting across the stage. She told her partner at the helm of Sony Pictures Entertainment, Michael M. Lynton, that the studio should be aggressive in securing the movie rights. Mr. Lynton quickly agreed, and after days of negotiations, the pair sealed a deal with an offer to pay $60 million upfront.

The film created from those rehearsal tapes, “This Is It,” opens this week for a 14-day run at theaters here and abroad. Days before opening, it had already sold out at more than 1,600 theaters domestically, according to Fandango and MovieTickets. “It’s not ‘Spider-Man,’ but it can make us good money,” Mr. Lynton says.

The Jackson deal was just the latest coup from a pair who are putting on a leadership display that is rare in any industry, outside of family-run businesses: a man and woman, equal partners, at the helm, and operating in sync. It has worked at Sony Pictures, say executives who know both people, because Mr. Lynton checked his ego after first being offered the job alone, while Ms. Pascal has put aside her resentment at not getting the chance to run the show herself after a long run at the studio.

What’s more, they say, it combines Ms. Pascal’s talents at picking films with Mr. Lynton’s penchant for minimizing financial risk. During their tenure, the studio has had its best year at the box office, in 2006, when it released “The Da Vinci Code,” and, over all, raked in more than $1.7 billion domestically.

“Amy is a gut-level decision maker,” says Matt Tolmach, one of two presidents of Sony’s Columbia Pictures, which is releasing the Jackson film. “She responds very viscerally to material and to people. Michael is very analytical and Socratic.”

It’s an arrangement that sprang from strife six years ago, and one that few in Hollywood — a land of ego, extravagance and desperate, daily scorekeeping — gave a chance of succeeding. A result has been that Sony, which entered Hollywood in 1989 with the purchase of Columbia Pictures and suffered through bouts with dysfunction and chaos, now has a management team that has been more durable than those at some other major studios.

That stability is a big advantage at a time when the industry is facing deep despair over the economic recession and a steep decline in DVD sales, which have been the recent lifeblood of the industry. At the same time, the Internet and social networking have fractured audiences across the media universe.

In some ways, the economic realities of the movie business have necessitated a different style of leadership: fiscally conservative, cooperative and less top-down.

While keeping tight reins on their budget, Ms. Pascal and Mr. Lynton have also tried to change the hierarchical culture of the studio by creating a campus-style environment and eliminating executive perks like the corporate dining room (in favor of a commissary where rank-and-file eat alongside top management).

More important, in addition to playing down their personal rivalry, they have shown a willingness to set aside corporate rivalries within Sony. The studio has worked more closely with the company’s electronics division, a sharp contrast to previous practices at the studio.

The Jackson deal was a rare example of Sony’s movie division and its music company, which held the rights to Mr. Jackson’s recorded music, working together — something that Howard Stringer, Sony’s chief executive, has stressed during his tenure, but that in practice has been more aspiration then reality.

Over breakfast recently at his office in New York, Mr. Stringer said of the partnership between Ms. Pascal and Mr. Lynton: “I never really thought it wouldn’t work. I didn’t think it was as risky as people thought it was.”

THE idea of creating an equal partnership between them was not Mr. Stringer’s original thought.

In 2003, when he phoned Ms. Pascal to tell her he planned to install Mr. Lynton, an outsider, as her boss, she was virtually apoplectic. She had served as president of Columbia since 1996, and felt that she had earned the promotion.

Mr. Stringer says: “I had complete confidence in Amy with the movies. Amy had a pretty good argument for, ‘Why are you bringing in this guy?’ ”

But Mr. Stringer was trying to refashion Sony in a way in which its film, television and music business would serve its hardware business. A movie studio, he said, could no longer be viewed as a corporate faction where television shows and movies are made, but as a “place where the future was invented.”

He trusted Ms. Pascal as a movie picker but thought that Mr. Lynton, who formerly ran AOL Europe, was needed to navigate the changing media environment brought on by new digital technologies and to help Sony expand internationally.

As Ms. Pascal recalls, “I thought I should have your job,” as she gestures toward Mr. Lynton, who is sitting on her left as they have lunch at the new commissary. “Howard thought you should have it. I said, ‘I’m leaving.’ ”

When Ms. Pascal protested, Mr. Stringer switched gears and asked Mr. Lynton if he would accept an equal footing with Ms. Pascal, with both reporting to Mr. Stringer. Ms. Pascal flew to New York to speak to Mr. Lynton, whom she had never met. Over drinks at the Sony Club, the two discussed the parameters of the relationship.

“Howard said, ‘I think you need some alone time,’ ” recalls Mr. Lynton. “It was like a weird, arranged India marriage. The principle was it has to be equal and open.”

The two couldn’t be more different, in style, temperament or background.

Mr. Lynton, 49, grew up in the Netherlands, and his path to Hollywood was by way of Phillips Exeter Academy, Harvard and, briefly, Wall Street. The scion of a wealthy family, he has an easy manner and runs in New York media circles.

Ms. Pascal, 51, is a native of Southern California and grew up in a middle-class family — her mother owned an artists’ bookstore and her father was an economist at the Rand Corporation. She attended the University of California, Los Angeles, graduating with a degree in international relations.

“Movies defined what was possible for a young ambitious girl growing up in Southern California,” Ms. Pascal told employees last year at a town-hall-style meeting.

She got her first movie job as a secretary for Tony Garnett, a producer. The phone didn’t ring much, so she read scripts and got to know screenwriters. Production executives at major studios sought her opinion, and eventually Scott Rudin, the producer, offered her a job at 20th Century Fox. It’s a familiar Hollywood trajectory, even for men: Barry Diller got his start in the William Morris Agency’s mailroom.

Ms. Pascal moved from 20th Century Fox to Columbia Pictures when she was still in her 20s. In her early days at Columbia, she oversaw films like “When Harry Met Sally” and “A League of Their Own.”

Ms. Pascal acknowledges that she was reared in the industry when money from DVDs was flooding in.

“When DVD was growing, everything was growing,” she says. “Michael came in and said, ‘This economy is going to change.’ Howard saw it coming, and that’s why he put the two of us together.”

The two have a conference room adjoining their offices, and this is where they iron out their differences.

“We fight, for real, like people do,” Ms. Pascal says. “But nobody sees that but us. We do it in our mutual conference room.”

Ms. Pascal says that Mr. Lynton talked her out of investing in “Evan Almighty,” a 2007 big-budget comedy put out by Universal that was not profitable. With a production budget of $175 million, the film had to “really hit big” to make money, said Mr. Lynton, who felt that it was too risky.

Despite his personal wealth, Mr. Lynton describes himself as cheap, and he often gets his haircuts from a barber on the lot. “I grew up in Holland, which is Calvinist,” he explains. “They watch their pennies. I go overboard in that way sometimes.”

After reading “Superbad,” a Seth Rogen comedy released in 2007, Mr. Lynton said he didn’t understand the humor, while Ms. Pascal said she thought it would “be fantastic and an anthem for this generation.” But because the investment risk was so low, he relented.

“Amy said, ‘You know what, you’ve just go to go with me on this one,’ ” says Mr. Lynton, who adds that the movie was of the type that is “never going to make sense on a piece on a paper.” But Ms. Pascal’s instinct was dead-on. “Superbad” cost about $18 million to make, and it generated about $120 million at the domestic box office, according to BoxOfficeMojo, which tracks ticket sales.

The pair say they have become genuine friends. They go to the same synagogue, Mr. Lynton used Ms. Pascal’s architect for his house in Brentwood, and their children go to the same schools and have sleepovers.

“It’s unique because we treat our partnership like a relationship, which I think two men would find hard to do,” Ms. Pascal says.

Brian Grazer, the producer who worked with Sony on “The Da Vinci Code,” says of the two: “Amy gets completely absorbed in the creative process of her work. I think that Michael, when he came in, was uniquely sensitive, and this is rare in the Hollywood equation. He was very sensitive to Amy and what her needs were.”

And Jeff Blake, the studio’s head of marketing, says, “You never see any fissures between them, never any angle where you can start playing one off the other.”

WHEN Mr. Lynton arrived at Sony in 2004, he set out to change the studio’s culture. He found an environment, he says, “in which people felt very reticent about sharing information, sometimes for personal reasons, and sometimes because they weren’t in the same building.”

The company recently spent millions, money committed before the recession set in, to build a new commissary and a gym. The new cafeteria, which is subsidized so employees can eat lunch for about $8, opened just weeks ago.

Mr. Lynton also shut down the Rita Hayworth dining room, a swanky space reserved for top executives and movie stars.

People around Hollywood have noticed an improvement in morale at the studio. Bryan Lourd, co-chairman of Creative Artists Agency, who often works with Sony on movie projects, says the new facilities have “enticed people to want to work there.”

He says the stability at Sony is in contrast to management upheaval that has afflicted other studios. In recent weeks, for example, two top executives at Universal Studios were ousted, and the head of Disney’s movie studio was replaced.

“Other studios aren’t as stable because of management changes, or changes in the direction of the entire company,” Mr. Lourd says. “They are largely living quarter to quarter.”

At Sony, he says, “it’s like walking into a hotel and the guy knows your name, and the bartender knows your name.”

Of course, all of Sony’s cultural change and fiscal discipline is in the service of an industry where keeping profits and revenue flat is considered successful. In Sony’s most recently completed fiscal year, its movie unit generated operating income of $305 million, compared with $339 million in 2004. In the first quarter this year, revenue rose 6.5 percent, and the studio posted an operating profit of $19 million, compared with a loss a year earlier. Executives say the studio has had five profitable pictures in row: “The Ugly Truth,” “Julie & Julia,” “District 9,” “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs” and “Zombieland.”

That said, no one is predicting much profit growth, mainly because of the decline in DVD sales, which have had more impact on profits than ticket sales.

To survive, Mr. Stringer says, studios need to move past the egos and flamboyance that typified other eras of Hollywood.

“Studios collapse in on themselves when politics interferes,” he says, noting that he had expected more sparks to fly when he made Ms. Pascal and Mr. Lynton equal partners. “But there really hasn’t been drama.”

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Thanks Jason, Great Data on the Spec Market

I recommend Jason's Blog

Spec Market Scorecard: 2009 to Date (October 16)
by Jason Scoggins
October 21, 2009

This isn't exactly the return to form I'd been hoping for. The end of the Fall selling season fast approaches, and as you can see from the below numbers the spec market is as flat as it's been since the end of April. Which in retrospect is not that surprising given the past month's remarkable executive turnover (huge changes at the top of Disney and Universal, plus adjustment at Fox) and conflicting messages coming out of the studios.

On the one hand, the majors are saying they're out of money in the short term (Sony and Universal even made public statements regarding curtailed spending on new and existing development, respectively). On the other, a bunch of high profile pitches and other projects have sold since the end of the Summer, including at least a couple in the seven figures.

It's clear from the swings in the number of new scripts on the market week-to-week over the past month (from the last week of September: 4, 17 and 5, and just half a dozen so far this week) that the town is not quite sure what to make of the fact that specs continue not to sell. One would think more than 9% of new spec scripts would get set up coming out of the Summer break, but maybe this is the new normal.

A couple of things are certain, however:

Producers are the new black when it comes to setting up a script. All but one or two of the specs that sold in 2009 were bought by or for a significant if not major producer (and just a handful of this year's sales had big actors or directors attached). This underscores the efficacy of the newly announced development funds secured by Bruckheimer and Parkes/MacDonald. Hopefully we'll see more of these deals in the next several months and the formal emergence of a new class of buyer.

The only reason to take a naked spec out wide right now is to introduce a writer to the town on a wholesale basis (that is to say, there's no good reason to take out a naked spec right now). The dismal statistic continues unabated: Just 2 of the 140 scripts that have gone out wide since May 1 have sold. That's a ridiculously low percentage: 1.4%, not far off (statistically speaking) the percentage of scripts sold during the WGA strike.

Study: big budget, big profit


Study: big budget, big profit

Posted using ShareThis
A new study offers reassurance for studio heads worried about runaway budgets.

Films boasting production pricetags of more than $100 million actually generate higher returns than mid-range pics, averaging $247 million in net profits per release, according to the study by SNL Kagan, which analyzed all films released on 1,000 or more screens from 2004-08.

Pics that cost $90 million-$100 million earned an average of $118 million.

When it comes to specific genres, animated films performed most strongly, averaging $221 million in net profits per toon. Sci-fi and fantasy films follow at $125 million.

The least profitable of the 10 genres listed in the study were horror pics, with an average domestic gross of $33 million and an average net profit of $17.9 million, and thrillers, with an average domestic gross of $40 million and an average net profit of $13.7 million.

The study, "Economics of Motion Pictures," analyzed 764 films. Net profits were based on a typical distribution fee scenario at major studios. SNL Kagan tallied 83 films with budgets of more than $100 million during the four-year period. (The study did not factor in marketing expenditures, however.)

The results support what many in Hollywood have long believed: That mid-range pics, with budgets of around $50 million, are riskier bets.

But the success of pricier pics is also due to the fact that studios have been more careful in choosing projects in which to invest considerable coin and launch expensive marketing campaigns around -- more recently, f/x-filled tentpoles have featured well-known superheroes or have been sequels to well-established franchises. Such projects have proved safer bets because they lure a large number of moviegoers and result in the minting of more coin from other areas like homevid and consumer products, as well.

The study also found that the box office has thrived during the recession.

Through August, admissions this year were up 5.1% to 938 million and total domestic gross rose 7.3% to $6.9 billion, SNL Kagan said.

But it warned that the DVD biz, Hollywood's "largest revenue source," is taking a hit, with sales down 6.8% last year to $14.8 billion. (Figures are Kagan's and may not agree with other industry sources.)

"Consumers are increasingly turning to Redbox's $1 kiosk rentals and Netflix's all-you-can-watch DVD and streaming services," said SNL Kagan analyst Wade Holden. "Going forward, we expect the sell-through industry will continue to decline despite growth in high definition. We estimate video sell-through revenue will drop 13% to $12.86 billion in 2009 as VOD technologies begin to erode market share."